PredictionMarkets+ | Politics

Live
Implied probabilities from Polymarket prediction markets. Order-book prices carry no vig; the price is the probability. Updates automatically as the market moves. Last updated 08/28/26
Today at a glance
Biggest 24h moveUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · September 30-13.0 ptsnow+26427.5%28¢
Most volumeVenezuela leader end of 2026? · Richard Grenell$32.8M+1999000.1%
Tightest marketIran leader end of 2026? · Mohammad Khatami0¢ spread+665670.2%
Polymarket
Odds
Polymarket: Live
Feed freshnessAll fresh
Polymarket
stale = no write in 15+ minrefreshed every sync

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Election · Closes Nov 7, 2028
$1267.7M · 128 outcomes
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+38720.5%21¢-0.4
Jon Ossoff+55615.3%15¢-0.5
Gavin Newsom+58314.7%15¢--
Kamala Harris+11747.9%+0.4
Pete Buttigieg+18055.3%--
Show 46 more
Josh Shapiro+18805.1%--
Mark Kelly+30753.2%+0.1
James Talarico+39822.5%+0.1
Rahm Emanuel+41552.4%--
Andy Beshear+42482.3%+0.1
Ro Khanna+43442.3%--
Wes Moore+70431.4%-0.1
J.B. Pritzker+85961.2%--
Gretchen Whitmer+141860.7%--
Michelle Obama+152850.7%--
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+152850.7%--
Mark Cuban+180820.5%--
Raphael Warnock+180820.5%--
Cory Booker+180820.5%--
Jon Stewart+180820.5%--
Bernie Sanders+180820.5%+0.1
Hunter Biden+221220.5%--
Zohran Mamdani+284710.4%--
Roy Cooper+284710.4%--
John Fetterman+284710.4%--
Chris Murphy+284710.4%+0.1
Stephen A. Smith+399000.3%-0.1
Barack Obama+399000.3%--
Liz Cheney+399000.3%--
LeBron James+399000.3%--
George Clooney+399000.3%--
Oprah Winfrey+399000.3%--
Beto O’Rourke+399000.3%--
Jasmine Crockett+399000.3%--
Ruben Gallego+399000.3%--
Elissa Slotkin+399000.3%--
Tim Walz+665670.2%--
Gina Raimondo+665670.2%-0.1
Jared Polis+665670.2%--
Hillary Clinton+665670.2%--
Phil Murphy+665670.2%--
Chelsea Clinton+665670.2%--
MrBeast+665670.2%--
Andrew Yang+665670.2%--
Kim Kardashian+665670.2%--
Graham Platner+665670.2%--
Abigail Spanberger+665670.2%--
Josh Stein+665670.2%--
Hakeem Jeffries+1999000.1%--
Adam Schiff+1999000.1%--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%--

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Election · Closes Nov 7, 2028
$693.7M · 128 outcomes
JD Vance+31424.2%24¢+0.8
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+62713.8%14¢-0.4
Marco Rubio+83910.7%11¢-0.1
Jon Ossoff+90510.0%10¢--
Gavin Newsom+10568.6%-0.4
Show 47 more
Kamala Harris+29773.3%--
Josh Shapiro+31793.1%+0.3
Pete Buttigieg+41552.4%--
Mark Kelly+44452.2%+0.5
Donald Trump+50282.0%--
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+63521.6%--
Ron DeSantis+73071.4%--
Tucker Carlson+85961.2%-0.1
Andy Beshear+94241.1%-0.1
Wes Moore+104261.0%--
Ro Khanna+104261.0%--
Greg Abbott+116650.9%--
Thomas Massie+116650.9%-0.1
Glenn Youngkin+152850.7%--
Donald Trump Jr.+152850.7%-0.1
Elon Musk+152850.7%--
Nikki Haley+180820.5%--
Ivanka Trump+180820.5%--
Michelle Obama+180820.5%--
Jamie Dimon+180820.5%-0.1
James Talarico+221220.5%-0.2
Gretchen Whitmer+284710.4%--
JB Pritzker+284710.4%--
Tulsi Gabbard+399000.3%--
Raphael Warnock+399000.3%--
Stephen Smith+665670.2%--
Tim Walz+665670.2%--
Vivek Ramaswamy+665670.2%--
LeBron James+665670.2%--
Kim Kardashian+665670.2%--
Zohran Mamdani+665670.2%--
Eric Trump+665670.2%--
Pete Hegseth+665670.2%--
Elissa Slotkin+665670.2%--
Adam Schiff+665670.2%--
Josh Stein+665670.2%--
Tim Scott+665670.2%--
Doug Burgum+665670.2%--
Tom Cotton+665670.2%+0.1
Rick Scott+665670.2%--
Jalen Brunson+1999000.1%--
Abigail Spanberger+1999000.1%--
Hakeem Jeffries+1999000.1%--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%--
Candace Owens+1999000.1%--
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%--
John N. Kennedy+1999000.1%--

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Election · Closes Nov 7, 2028
$692.1M · 128 outcomes
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+10449.0%49¢--
J.D. Vance+11147.4%47¢+0.2
Marco Rubio+47617.3%17¢-2.0
Tucker Carlson+36742.7%--
Ron DeSantis+41552.4%+0.3
Show 38 more
Donald Trump+46622.1%--
Donald Trump Jr.+50282.0%+0.3
Glenn Youngkin+104261.0%--
Ted Cruz+104261.0%--
Tulsi Gabbard+110110.9%--
Elon Musk+132330.8%--
Ivanka Trump+132330.8%--
Thomas Massie+152850.7%--
Vivek Ramaswamy+180820.5%--
Sarah Huckabee Sanders+180820.5%--
Greg Abbott+180820.5%--
Byron Donalds+199000.5%--
Elise Stefanik+221220.5%--
Marjorie Taylor Greene+249000.4%+0.1
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+284710.4%-0.1
Brian Kemp+284710.4%--
Josh Hawley+284710.4%--
Katie Britt+284710.4%+0.1
Rand Paul+284710.4%--
Steve Bannon+284710.4%--
Kim Kardashian+284710.4%--
Nikki Haley+332330.3%+0.1
Eric Trump+332330.3%--
Kristi Noem+399000.3%--
Mike Pence+399000.3%--
Tom Brady+399000.3%--
Erika Kirk+399000.3%--
Joe Kent+399000.3%--
Pete Hegseth+399000.3%--
Candace Owens+399000.3%--
Matt Gaetz+665670.2%--
John Thune+665670.2%--
Doug Burgum+665670.2%--
Tom Cotton+665670.2%--
John N. Kennedy+665670.2%--
Rick Scott+665670.2%--
Tim Scott+1999000.1%--
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%--

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Appointment · Closes Jun 1
$285.1M · 33 outcomes
Abiy Ahmed-382297.5%97¢+0.4
Gedion Timothewos+104261.0%+0.1
Berhanu Nega+152850.7%--
Adanech Abiebie+165670.6%--
Alesa Mengesha+221220.5%--
Show 3 more
Belete Molla+284710.4%--
Demeke Mekonnen+332330.3%--
Shimelis Abdisa+332330.3%--

Brazil Presidential Election

Election · Closes Oct 4
$137.8M · 32 outcomes
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-13557.5%57¢-5.0
Flávio Bolsonaro+17236.8%37¢+1.2
Augusto Cury+24643.9%+2.8
Renan Santos+53051.9%-0.9
Ronaldo Caiado+399000.3%--
Show 14 more
Jair Bolsonaro+665670.2%--
Romeu Zema+665670.2%--
Pablo Marçal+665670.2%+0.1
Tarcisio de Freitas+1999000.1%--
Fernando Haddad+1999000.1%--
Michelle Bolsonaro+1999000.1%-0.1
Eduardo Bolsonaro+1999000.1%--
Ratinho Júnior+1999000.1%--
Camilo Santana+1999000.1%--
Geraldo Alckmin+1999000.1%--
Eduardo Leite+1999000.1%--
Aldo Rebelo+1999000.1%--
Tereza Cristina+1999000.1%--
Helder Barbalho+1999000.1%--

Next French Presidential Election

Election · Closes Apr 30, 2027
$123.0M · 128 outcomes
Marine Le Pen+19334.2%34¢+0.8
Édouard Philippe+30824.5%25¢--
Jean-Luc Mélenchon+59014.5%14¢--
Gabriel Attal+22534.3%+0.4
François Hollande+28853.4%--
Show 36 more
Jordan Bardella+38222.6%-0.1
Bruno Retailleau+47782.1%--
Raphaël Glucksmann+56141.8%--
Dominique de Villepin+56141.8%+0.1
David Lisnard+61501.6%-0.2
Sarah Knafo+82331.2%-0.1
Sébastien Lecornu+104261.0%-0.2
Éric Zemmour+132330.8%--
Xavier Bertrand+399000.3%+0.1
Michel Barnier+399000.3%--
Jean Castex+399000.3%+0.1
Laurent Wauquiez+665670.2%--
François Ruffin+665670.2%--
Marine Tondelier+665670.2%--
Fabien Roussel+665670.2%--
Olivier Faure+665670.2%--
Ségolène Royal+665670.2%--
François Asselineau+665670.2%--
Clémentine Autain+665670.2%--
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan+665670.2%--
Valérie Pécresse+665670.2%--
François Bayrou+665670.2%--
Élisabeth Borne+665670.2%--
Yaël Braun-Pivet+665670.2%--
Gérald Darmanin+665670.2%--
Carole Delga+665670.2%--
Bernard Cazeneuve+665670.2%-0.1
Manuel Bompard+665670.2%--
Mathilde Panot+665670.2%--
Juan Branco+665670.2%--
Clémence Guetté+665670.2%--
Karim Bouamrane+665670.2%--
Lucie Castets+665670.2%--
Yannick Jadot+665670.2%--
François Baroin+665670.2%--
Marion Maréchal+665670.2%--

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Other · Closes Dec 31
$95.8M · 57 outcomes
Nicolás Maduro-62786.3%86¢--
Delcy Rodríguez+9539.5%10¢--
María Corina Machado+41552.4%--
No Head of State+82331.2%--
Edmundo González+284710.4%--
Show 11 more
Diosdado Cabello Rondón+332330.3%--
Vladimir Padrino López+499000.2%--
Jorge Rodríguez+499000.2%--
Dinorah Figuera+665670.2%--
Donald Trump+665670.2%--
Marco Rubio+665670.2%--
Pete Hegseth+665670.2%--
Evan Pettus+665670.2%--
Frank Donovan+665670.2%--
Dan Caine+1999000.1%--
Richard Grenell+1999000.1%--

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
Monthly series
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+70012.5%13¢-3.0

Fed Decision in September?

Monetary policy · Closes Sep 16
Monthly series
No change-21768.5%69¢+2.0
25 bps increase+22830.5%31¢-2.0
25 bps decrease+73071.4%+0.3
50+ bps decrease+284710.4%--
50+ bps increase+284710.4%--

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$42.0M · 6 outcomes
December 31+24973.9%+0.1
September 30+73071.4%-0.3

California Governor Election Winner

Election · Closes Nov 3
$40.9M · 45 outcomes
Xavier Becerra-200595.3%95¢--
Steve Hilton+20054.8%-0.1
Tom Steyer+665670.2%--
Rick Caruso+1999000.1%--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%--
Show 18 more
Katie Porter+1999000.1%--
Antonio Villaraigosa+1999000.1%--
Stephen Cloobeck+1999000.1%--
Butch Ware+1999000.1%--
Betty Yee+1999000.1%--
Toni Atkins+1999000.1%--
Kyle Langford+1999000.1%--
Chad Bianco+1999000.1%--
Eleni Kounalakis+1999000.1%--
Daniel Mercuri+1999000.1%--
Tony Thurmond+1999000.1%--
Michael Younger+1999000.1%--
Leo Zacky+1999000.1%--
Nicole Shanahan+1999000.1%--
Eric Swalwell+1999000.1%--
Kamala Harris+1999000.1%--
Matt Mahan+1999000.1%--
Elaine Culotti+1999000.1%--

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Other · Closes Dec 31
Monthly series
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+24324.0%-0.1

Iran leader end of 2026?

Other · Closes Dec 31
$38.7M · 123 outcomes
Mojtaba Khamenei-43681.4%81¢+0.9
No Head of State+21474.5%+0.2
Reza Pahlavi+30753.2%-0.1
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad+70431.4%--
Alireza Arafi+79001.3%-0.2
Show 25 more
Ahmad Vahidi+124000.8%--
Hassan Rouhani+132330.8%--
Hassan Khomeini+165670.6%--
Masoud Pezeshkian+165670.6%--
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf+180820.5%--
Abbas Araghchi+249000.4%--
Muhammad Mirbaqiri+284710.4%--
Sadegh Larijani+499000.2%-0.1
Hassan Shariatmadari+665670.2%--
Maryam Rajavi+665670.2%--
Massoud Rajavi+665670.2%--
Seyed Hossein Mousavian+665670.2%--
Reza Pirzadeh+665670.2%--
Navid Shomali+665670.2%--
Mustafa Hijri+665670.2%--
Ali Motahari+665670.2%--
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel+665670.2%--
Mostafa Pourmohammadi+665670.2%--
Sadegh Mahsouli+665670.2%--
Saeed Jalili+665670.2%--
Mohammad Khatami+665670.2%--
Mohsen Araki+665670.2%--
Nasir Hosseini+665670.2%--
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani+665670.2%--
Ali Asghar Hejazi+665670.2%--

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
Monthly series
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+25673.8%+0.1

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Election · Closes Dec 31
$33.9M · 28 outcomes
Gadi Eizenkot-10651.5%51¢-4.1
Benjamin Netanyahu+30824.5%25¢-2.0
Naftali Bennett+12337.5%--
Avigdor Lieberman+24004.0%-1.1
Ofer Winter+31793.1%+2.6
Show 14 more
Yair Golan+124000.8%+0.2
Itamar Ben Gvir+180820.5%-0.4
Moshe Feiglin+221220.5%+0.1
Amir Ohana+332330.3%-0.1
Yossi Cohen+399000.3%+0.1
Gideon Sa’ar+399000.3%+0.1
Yariv Levin+399000.3%--
Yair Lapid+665670.2%--
Benny Gantz+665670.2%--
Ayelet Shaked+665670.2%--
Yoaz Hendel+665670.2%--
Israel Katz+665670.2%--
Nir Barkat+665670.2%--
Gilad Erdan+665670.2%-0.1

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
Monthly series
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+14386.5%--

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Other · Closes Oct 10
$23.6M · 71 outcomes
Yulia Navalnaya+10768.5%--
Volodymyr Zelenskyy+21474.5%-0.1
UNRWA+21994.4%--
Pope Leo XIV+31793.1%--
International Court of Justice+34092.9%-0.1
Show 15 more
Donald Trump+45512.2%--
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani+53051.9%--
Narendra Modi+79001.3%--
Julian Assange+85961.2%+0.1
Greta Thunberg+85961.2%+0.1
Ahmed al-Sharaa+85961.2%+0.1
António Guterres+152850.7%--
Xi Jinping+180820.5%--
Charlie Kirk+332330.3%--
Khaled Mashal+399000.3%--
Benjamin Netanyahu+399000.3%--
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan+399000.3%--
Elon Musk+665670.2%--
Vladimir Putin+665670.2%--
Mohammed bin Salman+665670.2%--

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Election · Closes Sep 30
$22.7M · 34 outcomes
United Russia (ER)-27773.5%74¢--
New People (NL)+42819.0%19¢-1.0
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+17695.4%--
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+85961.2%--
Yabloko+399000.3%--
Show 3 more
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)+665670.2%--
Rodina+665670.2%--
Civic Platform (GP)+1999000.1%--

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Appointment · Closes Jul 1, 2027
Annual series
June 30, 2027+64113.5%14¢--
December 31, 2026+12337.5%--
September 30, 2026+56141.8%-0.1
August 31, 2026+665670.2%-0.2

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Other · Closes Sep 1
Monthly series
August 31+221220.5%--

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$11.7M
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?+31793.1%--

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Legislation · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$11.3M
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+59014.5%14¢--

Trump out as President before 2027?

Appointment · Closes Jan 1, 2027
Monthly series
Trump out as President before 2027?+14386.5%--

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$10.6M
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+14386.5%--

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Other · Closes Nov 3
$10.6M · 5 outcomes
Democrats Sweep+10249.5%50¢+1.0
R Senate, D House+19933.5%34¢-4.0
Republicans Sweep+77011.5%12¢--
D Senate, R House+104261.0%-0.1
Other+399000.3%--

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Other · Closes Nov 3
Monthly series
Democratic Party-77088.5%89¢+1.0
Republican Party+70012.5%13¢--

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Other · Closes Dec 31
Monthly series
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+21731.5%32¢-3.0

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Geopolitics · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$9.4M · 20 outcomes
December 31-22869.5%70¢-6.9
October 31-10050.0%50¢-10.5
September 30+26427.5%28¢-13.0
September 21+36521.5%22¢-8.5
September 14+70012.5%13¢-11.0
Show 2 more
September 7+14386.5%-10.0
August 31+56141.8%-2.4

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Other · Closes Dec 9
$6.8M · 15 outcomes
3.75%THIN+19534.0%34¢-9.1
4.0%+22530.8%31¢+0.4
4.25%+48817.0%17¢+3.7
3.5%+12077.7%-0.2
≥ 4.5%+22264.3%+0.2
Show 10 more
3.25%+99001.0%+0.6
2.75%+165670.6%+0.1
2.5%+199000.5%+0.1
≤1.0%+199000.5%+0.1
1.25+199000.5%--
1.5%+221220.5%--
2.25%+249000.4%+0.1
3.0%+249000.4%--
2.0%+284710.4%+0.1
1.75%+399000.3%--

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Other · Closes Sep 30
Monthly series
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?+21224.5%-4.0

Iran leadership change by...?

Other · Closes Jul 1, 2027
$6.5M · 14 outcomes
June 30, 2027+30824.5%25¢--
December 31+50616.5%17¢-0.5
November 30+85210.5%11¢--
October 31+14386.5%--
September 30+27573.5%--
Show 1 more
August 31+199000.5%+0.1

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Election · Closes Oct 4
$5.5M · 32 outcomes
Flávio Bolsonaro-54584.5%85¢-3.0
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+86610.4%10¢+1.6
Augusto Cury+27993.5%+3.3
Renan Santos+61501.6%-1.7
Tarcisio de Freitas+665670.2%--
Show 13 more
Jair Bolsonaro+665670.2%--
Fernando Haddad+665670.2%--
Michelle Bolsonaro+665670.2%--
Eduardo Bolsonaro+665670.2%--
Ratinho Júnior+665670.2%--
Ronaldo Caiado+665670.2%-0.1
Romeu Zema+665670.2%--
Camilo Santana+665670.2%--
Geraldo Alckmin+665670.2%--
Aldo Rebelo+665670.2%--
Eduardo Leite+665670.2%--
Tereza Cristina+1999000.1%--
Helder Barbalho+1999000.1%--

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Other · Closes Dec 31
Daily series
4-52384.0%84¢+0.1
5+10638.6%-0.2
6+16865.6%+0.3
8+79001.3%--
9+99001.0%+0.1
Show 7 more
7+116650.9%--
12+199000.5%--
10+249000.4%+0.1
11+665670.2%--
15++665670.2%--
13+1999000.1%--
14+1999000.1%--

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Other · Closes Sep 30
Daily series
No Meeting by September 30-44281.6%82¢+3.8
Switzerland+10768.5%--
Pakistan+20284.7%-3.4
Qatar+30253.2%-1.1
Oman+53051.9%+0.9
Show 14 more
Austria+284710.4%-0.3
Turkey+332330.3%-0.2
Other - Europe+499000.2%+0.1
USA+665670.2%--
Egypt+665670.2%-0.2
Italy+665670.2%--
Other - Middle East/North Africa+665670.2%--
Other+665670.2%--
UAE+1999000.1%--
Saudi Arabia+1999000.1%-0.1
Iran+1999000.1%--
Iraq+1999000.1%--
Kazakhstan+1999000.1%--
Russia+1999000.1%-0.1

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Other · Closes Jan 1, 2027
$5.0M · 12 outcomes
December 31+48817.0%17¢-1.0
October 31+85210.5%11¢--
September 30+14386.5%+1.0
September 15+39822.5%-1.0
August 31+665670.2%-0.2

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Appointment · Closes Sep 13
$4.2M · 36 outcomes
Magdalena Andersson-54584.5%85¢-4.0
Ulf Kristersson+59014.5%14¢+3.5
Jimmie Åkesson+180820.5%+0.1
Ebba Busch+399000.3%-0.2
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist+399000.3%--
Show 5 more
Anna-Karin Hatt+665670.2%--
Nooshi Dadgostar+665670.2%--
Simona Mohamsson+665670.2%--
Amanda Lind+665670.2%--
Daniel Helldén+665670.2%--

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Other · Closes Nov 3
$4.0M · 9 outcomes
Democratic Party-10250.5%51¢--
Republican Party-10250.5%51¢--

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Geopolitics · Closes Aug 25
$3.7M · 6 outcomes
August 25-199900100.0%100¢--
August 31-367497.4%97¢+1.7
September 15-77088.5%89¢-1.0
September 30-38879.5%80¢-3.5
October 31-23970.5%71¢-4.0

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Election · Closes Nov 3
$3.7M
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+25128.5%28¢--

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Geopolitics · Closes Jul 1, 2027
$3.6M · 7 outcomes
June 30, 2027-10451.0%51¢-1.5
March 31, 2027+15339.5%40¢-2.0
December 31+41319.5%20¢-3.0
October 31+10768.5%-2.0
August 31+180820.5%-0.2

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Appointment · Closes Dec 31
$3.4M · 49 outcomes
Alexandru Nazare+11646.4%46¢-0.3
Sorin Grindeanu+53715.7%16¢-1.0
Radu Burnete+19624.9%--
Ilie Bolojan+20984.6%-1.0
Eugen Tomac+46622.1%--
Show 31 more
Siegfried Mureșan+75921.3%--
Ionuț Dumitru+104261.0%--
Dan Motreanu+104261.0%-0.1
George Simion+110110.9%-0.1
Traian Basescu+110110.9%-0.2
Cătălin Predoiu+116650.9%--
Delia Velculescu+124000.8%--
Ciprian Ciucu+132330.8%--
Lucian Croitoru+152850.7%-0.1
Șerban Matei+199000.5%--
Dragoș Pîslaru+199000.5%-0.1
Hunor Kelemen+221220.5%--
Victor Ponta+221220.5%--
Adrian Veștea+221220.5%--
Raluca Turcan+249000.4%--
Anca Dragu+332330.3%--
Calin Georgescu+399000.3%--
Lucian Isar+499000.2%--
Alexandru Rafila+499000.2%--
Cătălin Drulă+499000.2%--
Vasile Dîncu+499000.2%-0.1
Mugur Isărescu+665670.2%--
Mircea Geoană+665670.2%--
Sebastian Burduja+665670.2%--
Elena Lasconi+665670.2%--
Dacian Cioloș+665670.2%-0.1
Emil Boc+665670.2%--
Dominic Fritz+665670.2%--
Nicolae Ciucă+665670.2%--
Alexandru Rogobete+665670.2%--
Marcel Ciolacu+1999000.1%--
Showing 41 eventsVolume-sorted · order-book prices, no vig
The exchange

About Polymarket

What Polymarket is

A peer-to-peer prediction market, not a sportsbook. Every market is a YES/NO contract that settles at $1 or $0, and the price is a probability: 15¢ means the market puts a 15% chance on that outcome.

Order-book pricing vs bookmaker vig

A sportsbook builds margin into both sides of a line. On an order book the price is the last trade between two traders, with no vig. The honest cost is the bid-ask spread, which is why thin markets are flagged here.

Fees

No per-trade fee on standard markets. The real cost of entering and exiting is the spread, so tight markets are cheap to trade and thin ones are not. Contracts settle in USDC.

Regulatory status

US access runs through a CFTC-regulated exchange following Polymarket's 2025 acquisition of a licensed venue. Availability varies by state. It is an exchange, not a book: you trade against other users, not the house.

What the numbers mean

Volume is dollars traded in a market. Where a venue counts contracts rather than dollars, the figure is converted at that market's own price so the column compares like with like; hover it for the raw count. The 24h column is the change in probability over the last day, in percentage points, measured against each venue's own price a day earlier; a market with no price that old shows no move rather than a flat one. Boards are volume-sorted so the marquee markets lead.