Today at a glance
Biggest 24h moveBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory · Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%+13.0 ptsnow+13043.5%44¢
Most volumeDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Oprah Winfrey$54.4M+1999000.1%0¢
Tightest marketIran leader end of 2026? · Mohammad Khatami0¢ spread+665670.2%0¢
PolymarketOdds
Polymarket: Live
Feed freshnessAll fresh
Polymarketstale = no write in 15+ minrefreshed every sync
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+49916.7%17¢-0.8
Gavin Newsom+51516.3%16¢+1.7
Jon Ossoff+53915.7%16¢+0.2
Kamala Harris+14276.6%7¢--
Josh Shapiro+18055.3%5¢+0.1
Show 48 more
Pete Buttigieg+19005.0%5¢--
Andy Beshear+29303.3%3¢+0.1
James Talarico+35362.8%3¢--
Mark Kelly+45512.2%2¢--
Wes Moore+47782.1%2¢+0.2
Raphael Warnock+49002.0%2¢--
Rahm Emanuel+63521.6%2¢--
Ro Khanna+67971.5%1¢--
Bernie Sanders+73071.4%1¢-0.1
J.B. Pritzker+79001.3%1¢--
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+79001.3%1¢+0.2
Chelsea Clinton+110110.9%1¢--
Cory Booker+132330.8%1¢--
Gretchen Whitmer+180820.5%1¢--
Jon Stewart+180820.5%1¢--
Michelle Obama+221220.5%0¢+0.1
Roy Cooper+284710.4%0¢--
Chris Murphy+332330.3%0¢-0.1
Ruben Gallego+332330.3%0¢--
Mark Cuban+399000.3%0¢--
Barack Obama+399000.3%0¢--
Hillary Clinton+399000.3%0¢--
Hunter Biden+399000.3%0¢+0.1
Stephen A. Smith+665670.2%0¢--
Gina Raimondo+665670.2%0¢--
Zohran Mamdani+665670.2%0¢--
Jared Polis+665670.2%0¢--
Phil Murphy+665670.2%0¢--
Jasmine Crockett+665670.2%0¢--
Abigail Spanberger+665670.2%0¢--
Hakeem Jeffries+665670.2%0¢--
Elissa Slotkin+665670.2%0¢--
Josh Stein+665670.2%0¢--
Chris Van Hollen+665670.2%0¢--
Mitch Landrieu+665670.2%0¢--
LeBron James+999000.1%0¢-0.1
Tim Walz+1999000.1%0¢--
John Fetterman+1999000.1%0¢--
Liz Cheney+1999000.1%0¢--
George Clooney+1999000.1%0¢--
MrBeast+1999000.1%0¢--
Oprah Winfrey+1999000.1%0¢--
Andrew Yang+1999000.1%0¢--
Beto O’Rourke+1999000.1%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+1999000.1%0¢--
Graham Platner+1999000.1%0¢--
Adam Schiff+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance+38720.5%21¢+0.5
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+69112.7%13¢--
Gavin Newsom+86610.4%10¢+1.1
Jon Ossoff+9589.5%9¢-0.2
Marco Rubio+9999.1%9¢+0.5
Show 49 more
Kamala Harris+24324.0%4¢+0.1
Josh Shapiro+32902.9%3¢-0.1
Pete Buttigieg+35362.8%3¢--
Ron DeSantis+37462.6%3¢+0.5
Andy Beshear+45512.2%2¢--
James Talarico+50282.0%2¢--
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+63521.6%2¢--
Donald Trump+67971.5%1¢--
Tucker Carlson+67971.5%1¢--
Mark Kelly+85961.2%1¢--
Raphael Warnock+85961.2%1¢--
Wes Moore+94241.1%1¢--
Thomas Massie+94241.1%1¢--
Ro Khanna+116650.9%1¢--
JB Pritzker+132330.8%1¢--
Ivanka Trump+165670.6%1¢--
Donald Trump Jr.+180820.5%1¢--
Ted Cruz+180820.5%1¢--
Rahm Emanuel+180820.5%1¢--
Gretchen Whitmer+284710.4%0¢--
Jamie Dimon+399000.3%0¢--
Glenn Youngkin+665670.2%0¢--
Tulsi Gabbard+665670.2%0¢--
Greg Abbott+665670.2%0¢--
Elon Musk+665670.2%0¢--
Michelle Obama+665670.2%0¢--
Stephen Smith+1999000.1%0¢--
Nikki Haley+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Walz+1999000.1%0¢--
Vivek Ramaswamy+1999000.1%0¢--
LeBron James+1999000.1%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+1999000.1%0¢--
Zohran Mamdani+1999000.1%0¢--
Eric Trump+1999000.1%0¢--
Pete Hegseth+1999000.1%0¢--
Jalen Brunson+1999000.1%0¢--
Abigail Spanberger+1999000.1%0¢--
Hakeem Jeffries+1999000.1%0¢--
Elissa Slotkin+1999000.1%0¢--
Adam Schiff+1999000.1%0¢--
Josh Stein+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Candace Owens+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%0¢--
Doug Burgum+1999000.1%0¢--
Tom Cotton+1999000.1%0¢--
John N. Kennedy+1999000.1%0¢--
Rick Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+10449.0%49¢--
J.D. Vance+12544.4%44¢+0.3
Marco Rubio+55115.4%15¢+0.1
Ron DeSantis+29303.3%3¢+0.2
Tucker Carlson+32333.0%3¢-0.1
Show 39 more
Ted Cruz+39822.5%2¢--
Donald Trump+50282.0%2¢--
Donald Trump Jr.+54561.8%2¢--
Ivanka Trump+67971.5%1¢--
Thomas Massie+116650.9%1¢--
Brian Kemp+180820.5%1¢--
Pete Hegseth+249000.4%0¢--
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+284710.4%0¢--
Josh Hawley+284710.4%0¢--
Rand Paul+284710.4%0¢--
Marjorie Taylor Greene+284710.4%0¢--
Tom Cotton+284710.4%0¢--
Glenn Youngkin+399000.3%0¢--
Greg Abbott+399000.3%0¢--
Katie Britt+399000.3%0¢--
Candace Owens+399000.3%0¢--
Eric Trump+499000.2%0¢--
Tulsi Gabbard+665670.2%0¢-0.1
Nikki Haley+665670.2%0¢--
Vivek Ramaswamy+665670.2%0¢--
Byron Donalds+665670.2%0¢--
Elise Stefanik+665670.2%0¢--
Elon Musk+665670.2%0¢--
Kristi Noem+665670.2%0¢--
Mike Pence+665670.2%0¢--
Steve Bannon+665670.2%0¢--
Joe Kent+665670.2%0¢--
Doug Burgum+665670.2%0¢--
John N. Kennedy+665670.2%0¢--
John McEntee+665670.2%0¢--
Sarah Huckabee Sanders+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Matt Gaetz+1999000.1%0¢--
John Thune+1999000.1%0¢--
Tom Brady+1999000.1%0¢--
Erika Kirk+1999000.1%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Scott+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%0¢--
Rick Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen+11845.9%46¢--
Édouard Philippe+50616.5%17¢--
David Lisnard+68412.8%13¢--
Jean-Luc Mélenchon+85210.5%11¢--
Raphaël Glucksmann+22534.3%4¢--
Show 40 more
François Hollande+39822.5%2¢--
Bruno Retailleau+70431.4%1¢--
Gabriel Attal+94241.1%1¢--
Éric Zemmour+110110.9%1¢--
Jordan Bardella+132330.8%1¢--
Sarah Knafo+152850.7%1¢--
Dominique de Villepin+165670.6%1¢--
Christine Lagarde+221220.5%0¢--
Sébastien Lecornu+399000.3%0¢--
Xavier Bertrand+665670.2%0¢--
Marion Maréchal+665670.2%0¢--
Natacha Polony+665670.2%0¢--
François Ruffin+999000.1%0¢--
Marine Tondelier+999000.1%0¢--
Ségolène Royal+999000.1%0¢--
François Asselineau+999000.1%0¢--
Jean Castex+999000.1%0¢--
Laurent Wauquiez+1999000.1%0¢--
Fabien Roussel+1999000.1%0¢--
Olivier Faure+1999000.1%0¢--
Clémentine Autain+1999000.1%0¢--
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan+1999000.1%0¢--
Michel Barnier+1999000.1%0¢--
Valérie Pécresse+1999000.1%0¢--
François Bayrou+1999000.1%0¢--
Élisabeth Borne+1999000.1%0¢--
Yaël Braun-Pivet+1999000.1%0¢--
Gérald Darmanin+1999000.1%0¢--
Carole Delga+1999000.1%0¢--
Bernard Cazeneuve+1999000.1%0¢--
Manuel Bompard+1999000.1%0¢--
Mathilde Panot+1999000.1%0¢--
Juan Branco+1999000.1%0¢--
Clémence Guetté+1999000.1%0¢--
Karim Bouamrane+1999000.1%0¢--
Lucie Castets+1999000.1%0¢--
Yannick Jadot+1999000.1%0¢--
François Baroin+1999000.1%0¢--
Anasse Kazib+1999000.1%0¢--
Sylvain Durif+1999000.1%0¢--
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro-30175.1%75¢--
Delcy Rodríguez+42619.0%19¢--
No Head of State+50282.0%2¢--
María Corina Machado+94241.1%1¢--
Jorge Rodríguez+332330.3%0¢--
Show 11 more
Edmundo González+499000.2%0¢--
Marco Rubio+665670.2%0¢--
Pete Hegseth+665670.2%0¢--
Frank Donovan+665670.2%0¢--
Diosdado Cabello Rondón+1999000.1%0¢--
Dinorah Figuera+1999000.1%0¢--
Donald Trump+1999000.1%0¢--
Vladimir Padrino López+1999000.1%0¢--
Evan Pettus+1999000.1%0¢--
Dan Caine+1999000.1%0¢--
Richard Grenell+1999000.1%0¢--
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+44118.5%19¢--
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro-50483.5%83¢--
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+50616.5%17¢--
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot-10551.2%51¢--
Benjamin Netanyahu+26427.5%28¢--
Naftali Bennett+64113.5%14¢--
Avigdor Lieberman+34712.8%3¢--
Israel Katz+221220.5%0¢--
Show 14 more
Moshe Feiglin+284710.4%0¢--
Yossi Cohen+665670.2%0¢--
Yair Golan+665670.2%0¢--
Itamar Ben Gvir+665670.2%0¢--
Amir Ohana+665670.2%0¢--
Ofer Winter+665670.2%0¢--
Yair Lapid+999000.1%0¢--
Benny Gantz+999000.1%0¢--
Gideon Sa’ar+999000.1%0¢--
Yariv Levin+999000.1%0¢--
Ayelet Shaked+999000.1%0¢--
Yoaz Hendel+999000.1%0¢--
Nir Barkat+999000.1%0¢--
Gilad Erdan+999000.1%0¢--
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+43442.3%2¢+0.1
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31+19624.9%5¢--
October 31+221220.5%0¢-0.1
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra-329097.1%97¢--
Steve Hilton+31793.1%3¢--
Rick Caruso+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Katie Porter+1999000.1%0¢--
Show 18 more
Antonio Villaraigosa+1999000.1%0¢--
Stephen Cloobeck+1999000.1%0¢--
Butch Ware+1999000.1%0¢--
Betty Yee+1999000.1%0¢--
Toni Atkins+1999000.1%0¢--
Kyle Langford+1999000.1%0¢--
Chad Bianco+1999000.1%0¢--
Eleni Kounalakis+1999000.1%0¢--
Daniel Mercuri+1999000.1%0¢--
Tony Thurmond+1999000.1%0¢--
Michael Younger+1999000.1%0¢--
Leo Zacky+1999000.1%0¢--
Nicole Shanahan+1999000.1%0¢--
Eric Swalwell+1999000.1%0¢--
Tom Steyer+1999000.1%0¢--
Kamala Harris+1999000.1%0¢--
Matt Mahan+1999000.1%0¢--
Elaine Culotti+1999000.1%0¢--
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei-58785.5%85¢+0.1
No Head of State+19005.0%5¢+0.6
Reza Pahlavi+35362.8%3¢-0.5
Alireza Arafi+37462.6%3¢+0.5
Hassan Rouhani+180820.5%1¢+0.1
Show 25 more
Ahmad Vahidi+180820.5%1¢+0.1
Masoud Pezeshkian+199000.5%1¢+0.3
Abbas Araghchi+221220.5%0¢--
Maryam Rajavi+249000.4%0¢+0.3
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf+284710.4%0¢+0.1
Hassan Khomeini+332330.3%0¢-0.1
Muhammad Mirbaqiri+399000.3%0¢+0.1
Sadegh Larijani+499000.2%0¢--
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad+499000.2%0¢--
Mohammad Khatami+665670.2%0¢--
Mohsen Araki+665670.2%0¢+0.1
Hassan Shariatmadari+999000.1%0¢--
Massoud Rajavi+999000.1%0¢--
Seyed Hossein Mousavian+999000.1%0¢--
Reza Pirzadeh+999000.1%0¢--
Navid Shomali+999000.1%0¢--
Mustafa Hijri+999000.1%0¢--
Ali Motahari+999000.1%0¢--
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel+999000.1%0¢--
Mostafa Pourmohammadi+999000.1%0¢--
Sadegh Mahsouli+999000.1%0¢--
Saeed Jalili+999000.1%0¢--
Nasir Hosseini+999000.1%0¢--
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani+999000.1%0¢--
Ali Asghar Hejazi+999000.1%0¢--
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep-19065.5%66¢-2.0
R Senate, D House+29225.5%26¢--
Republicans Sweep+12337.5%8¢--
D Senate, R House+116650.9%1¢+0.1
Other+999000.1%0¢-0.1
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+36742.7%3¢+0.3
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+17185.5%6¢--
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027+85210.5%11¢+1.0
December 31, 2026+41552.4%2¢+0.6
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+25673.8%4¢--
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party-107691.5%92¢--
Republican Party+10768.5%9¢+1.0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+77011.5%12¢--
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22-3990099.8%100¢+1.9
October 24-2847199.7%100¢+6.2
October 28-85289.5%90¢+5.0
October 31-47182.5%83¢+5.0
November 8-16061.5%62¢+2.5
Show 4 more
November 15+11746.0%46¢-3.5
November 22+15339.5%40¢-4.0
November 30+17436.5%37¢-0.5
December 31+23929.5%30¢+1.0
Trump out as President before 2027?
Trump out as President before 2027?+21994.4%4¢--
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?+42482.3%2¢-0.2
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+32333.0%3¢--
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31-14158.5%59¢--
December 31+18934.7%35¢+0.9
November 30+32623.5%24¢+1.0
October 31+14386.5%7¢-0.5
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson-30875.5%76¢--
Ulf Kristersson+42519.1%19¢--
Ebba Busch+24643.9%4¢--
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist+116650.9%1¢--
Jimmie Åkesson+665670.2%0¢--
Show 5 more
Anna-Karin Hatt+1999000.1%0¢--
Nooshi Dadgostar+1999000.1%0¢--
Simona Mohamsson+1999000.1%0¢--
Amanda Lind+1999000.1%0¢--
Daniel Helldén+1999000.1%0¢--
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party-19966.5%67¢-1.0
Republican Party+19933.5%34¢+1.0
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%-22369.0%69¢--
4.0%+41419.5%19¢--
≥ 4.5%+10838.5%8¢--
3.5%+67971.5%1¢--
3.75%+99001.0%1¢--
Show 10 more
≤1.0%+152850.7%1¢--
3.25%+249000.4%0¢--
1.25+284710.4%0¢--
2.25%+399000.3%0¢--
2.5%+399000.3%0¢--
3.0%+399000.3%0¢--
1.75%+399000.3%0¢--
2.0%+399000.3%0¢--
2.75%+665670.2%0¢--
1.5%+665670.2%0¢--
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027+30824.5%25¢+1.0
December 31+59014.5%14¢+1.0
November 30+9539.5%10¢+2.0
October 31+75921.3%1¢--
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027-23970.5%71¢-1.0
November 30, 2027-21368.0%68¢+0.5
October 31, 2027-19466.0%66¢+0.5
September 30, 2027-17463.5%64¢+0.5
August 31, 2027-15060.0%60¢--
Show 10 more
July 31, 2027-13557.5%57¢-0.5
June 30, 2027-11754.0%54¢-1.5
May 31, 2027-10451.0%51¢+1.0
April 30, 2027+13542.5%43¢--
March 31, 2027+18635.0%35¢-2.5
February 28, 2027+23330.0%30¢-2.0
January 31, 2027+30824.5%25¢-2.0
December 31+41319.5%20¢--
November 30+9539.5%10¢-3.0
October 31+43442.3%2¢-0.1
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028+23929.5%30¢--
December 31, 2027+54515.5%16¢+1.0
June 30, 2027+9539.5%10¢--
December 31, 2026+45512.2%2¢--
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
OtherTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%+13043.5%44¢+13.0
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%+18235.5%36¢-6.0
Lula da Silva <4%+59014.5%14¢-6.0
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%+18055.3%5¢-1.3
Show 4 more
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%++82331.2%1¢-0.4
Lula da Silva 4-8%+221220.5%0¢-0.3
Lula da Silva 8-12%+665670.2%0¢--
Lula da Silva 12%++1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)-17463.5%64¢--
Ken Paxton (R)+17436.5%37¢--
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4-29174.5%74¢--
5+42219.2%19¢--
6+28853.4%3¢--
7+85961.2%1¢--
15++89911.1%1¢--
Show 7 more
10+116650.9%1¢--
8+180820.5%1¢--
9+221220.5%0¢--
12+499000.2%0¢--
11+665670.2%0¢--
13+665670.2%0¢--
14+665670.2%0¢--
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman-11754.0%54¢--
Karen Bass+12045.5%46¢--
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia-25171.5%72¢+2.0
List ATHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List BTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List CTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List DTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
Show 32 more
List ETHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List FTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List GTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List HTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List ITHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List JTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List KTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List LTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List MTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List NTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List OTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List PTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List QTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List RTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List STHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List TTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List UTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List VTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List WTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List XTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List YTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
List ZTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
OtherTHIN-10050.0%50¢--
Student List – Students Win+25128.5%28¢-1.5
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!+1999000.1%0¢--
Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)+1999000.1%0¢--
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor+1999000.1%0¢--
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification+1999000.1%0¢--
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić+1999000.1%0¢--
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović+1999000.1%0¢--
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš+1999000.1%0¢--
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak+1999000.1%0¢--
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027-127992.8%93¢--
US+28853.4%3¢--
Qatar / UAE+51631.9%2¢--
China+152850.7%1¢--
Saudi Arabia+180820.5%1¢--
Show 9 more
Switzerland+199000.5%1¢--
Turkey+221220.5%0¢--
Russia+332330.3%0¢--
Italy / Vatican+499000.2%0¢--
Ukraine+665670.2%0¢--
Hungary+665670.2%0¢--
Belarus+665670.2%0¢--
Kazakhstan+665670.2%0¢--
India+999000.1%0¢--
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+37621.0%21¢--
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?+14386.5%7¢--
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?+17185.5%6¢--
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31+47117.5%18¢+2.0
November 30+10119.0%9¢-2.0
October 31+49002.0%2¢-0.2
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?+85210.5%11¢+1.0
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47+14141.5%42¢-2.0
48+47117.5%18¢-0.5
49+77011.5%12¢+0.5
50+77011.5%12¢-0.5
51+10768.5%9¢+0.5
Show 6 more
52+18425.1%5¢+0.6
53+20984.6%5¢+0.5
54+56141.8%2¢-0.5
55+85961.2%1¢-0.3
56+180820.5%1¢--
57++221220.5%0¢-0.1
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027+10768.5%9¢--
December 31+31263.1%3¢--
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?+221220.5%0¢+0.1
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?+85210.5%11¢--
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31+15040.0%40¢-0.5
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31+17185.5%6¢--
October 31+141860.7%1¢--
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?+99001.0%1¢--
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027+15339.5%40¢-2.5
June 30, 2027+30824.5%25¢-0.5
March 31, 2027+10768.5%9¢-12.5
December 31, 2026+17185.5%6¢--
November 30, 2026+30753.2%3¢-0.1
Show 1 more
October 31, 2026+249000.4%0¢-0.2
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)-17463.5%64¢--
Susan Collins (R)+18235.5%36¢--
Showing 1–50 of 55 eventsVolume-sorted · order-book prices, no vig
What Are Political Prediction Markets?
Political prediction markets price the outcome of elections, appointments, legislation, geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve decisions. Polling shifts, campaign events, confirmation votes and committee announcements move these prices continuously, often well ahead of any official result.
The exchange
About Polymarket
What Polymarket is
A peer-to-peer prediction market, not a sportsbook. Every market is a YES/NO contract that settles at $1 or $0, and the price is a probability: 15¢ means the market puts a 15% chance on that outcome.
Order-book pricing vs bookmaker vig
A sportsbook builds margin into both sides of a line. On an order book the price is the last trade between two traders, with no vig. The honest cost is the bid-ask spread, which is why thin markets are flagged here.
Fees
No per-trade fee on standard markets. The real cost of entering and exiting is the spread, so tight markets are cheap to trade and thin ones are not. Contracts settle in USDC.
Regulatory status
US access runs through a CFTC-regulated exchange following Polymarket's 2025 acquisition of a licensed venue. Availability varies by state. It is an exchange, not a book: you trade against other users, not the house.
What the numbers mean
Volume is dollars traded in a market. Where a venue counts contracts rather than dollars, the figure is converted at that market's own price so the column compares like with like; hover it for the raw count. The 24h column is the change in probability over the last day, in percentage points, measured against each venue's own price a day earlier; a market with no price that old shows no move rather than a flat one. Boards are volume-sorted so the marquee markets lead.
