Today at a glance
Biggest 24h moveWhat will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? · 4.0%-13.4 ptsnow+84310.6%11¢
Most volumeDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Kim Kardashian$42.9M+1999000.1%0¢
Tightest marketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028 · Vivek Ramaswamy0¢ spread+399000.3%0¢
PolymarketOdds
Polymarket: Live
Feed freshnessAll fresh
Polymarketstale = no write in 15+ minrefreshed every sync
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+49316.9%17¢-0.9
Gavin Newsom+54715.5%15¢+1.3
Jon Ossoff+62213.9%14¢-0.8
Kamala Harris+13606.9%7¢+0.3
Josh Shapiro+15815.9%6¢--
Show 48 more
Pete Buttigieg+19005.0%5¢-0.1
Andy Beshear+30253.2%3¢-0.2
James Talarico+45512.2%2¢-0.2
Mark Kelly+46622.1%2¢-0.4
Wes Moore+50282.0%2¢--
Raphael Warnock+51631.9%2¢+0.1
Bernie Sanders+56141.8%2¢-0.5
Rahm Emanuel+59611.7%2¢--
J.B. Pritzker+73071.4%1¢--
Ro Khanna+79001.3%1¢-0.1
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+89911.1%1¢--
Chelsea Clinton+110110.9%1¢-0.3
Jon Stewart+116650.9%1¢-0.1
Cory Booker+152850.7%1¢--
Gretchen Whitmer+180820.5%1¢--
Chris Murphy+249000.4%0¢--
Chris Van Hollen+284710.4%0¢--
Hunter Biden+332330.3%0¢--
Mark Cuban+399000.3%0¢--
Michelle Obama+399000.3%0¢--
Roy Cooper+399000.3%0¢--
Ruben Gallego+399000.3%0¢--
Stephen A. Smith+665670.2%0¢--
Gina Raimondo+665670.2%0¢--
Zohran Mamdani+665670.2%0¢--
Jared Polis+665670.2%0¢--
Barack Obama+665670.2%0¢--
Hillary Clinton+665670.2%0¢--
Phil Murphy+665670.2%0¢--
LeBron James+665670.2%0¢--
Jasmine Crockett+665670.2%0¢--
Abigail Spanberger+665670.2%0¢--
Hakeem Jeffries+665670.2%0¢--
Elissa Slotkin+665670.2%0¢--
Josh Stein+665670.2%0¢--
Mitch Landrieu+665670.2%0¢--
Tim Walz+1999000.1%0¢--
John Fetterman+1999000.1%0¢--
Liz Cheney+1999000.1%0¢--
George Clooney+1999000.1%0¢--
MrBeast+1999000.1%0¢--
Oprah Winfrey+1999000.1%0¢--
Andrew Yang+1999000.1%0¢--
Beto O’Rourke+1999000.1%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+1999000.1%0¢--
Graham Platner+1999000.1%0¢--
Adam Schiff+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance+35122.2%22¢--
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+66013.2%13¢--
Jon Ossoff+9269.8%10¢-0.6
Gavin Newsom+10059.0%9¢-0.1
Marco Rubio+11907.8%8¢-0.1
Show 49 more
Kamala Harris+23104.2%4¢-0.3
Josh Shapiro+31263.1%3¢+0.1
Pete Buttigieg+35362.8%3¢--
Andy Beshear+54561.8%2¢+0.1
Ron DeSantis+59611.7%2¢--
Tucker Carlson+59611.7%2¢--
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson+63521.6%2¢-0.2
James Talarico+75921.3%1¢-0.1
Donald Trump+79001.3%1¢--
Mark Kelly+79001.3%1¢-0.1
Raphael Warnock+85961.2%1¢+0.2
Thomas Massie+99001.0%1¢+0.1
Wes Moore+104261.0%1¢--
Ro Khanna+116650.9%1¢--
Ivanka Trump+152850.7%1¢+0.1
Rahm Emanuel+152850.7%1¢--
JB Pritzker+180820.5%1¢--
Ted Cruz+180820.5%1¢--
Donald Trump Jr.+221220.5%0¢-0.1
Gretchen Whitmer+284710.4%0¢--
Jamie Dimon+332330.3%0¢-0.1
Glenn Youngkin+665670.2%0¢--
Tulsi Gabbard+665670.2%0¢--
Greg Abbott+665670.2%0¢--
Elon Musk+665670.2%0¢--
Michelle Obama+665670.2%0¢--
Tom Cotton+665670.2%0¢--
Stephen Smith+1999000.1%0¢--
Nikki Haley+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Walz+1999000.1%0¢--
Vivek Ramaswamy+1999000.1%0¢--
LeBron James+1999000.1%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+1999000.1%0¢--
Zohran Mamdani+1999000.1%0¢--
Eric Trump+1999000.1%0¢--
Pete Hegseth+1999000.1%0¢--
Jalen Brunson+1999000.1%0¢--
Abigail Spanberger+1999000.1%0¢--
Hakeem Jeffries+1999000.1%0¢--
Elissa Slotkin+1999000.1%0¢--
Adam Schiff+1999000.1%0¢--
Josh Stein+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Candace Owens+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%0¢--
Doug Burgum+1999000.1%0¢--
John N. Kennedy+1999000.1%0¢--
Rick Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+10449.0%49¢--
J.D. Vance+10648.4%48¢-0.3
Marco Rubio+61714.0%14¢-0.8
Tucker Carlson+31263.1%3¢+0.1
Ron DeSantis+39822.5%2¢--
Show 39 more
Ted Cruz+41552.4%2¢--
Donald Trump+47782.1%2¢+0.1
Donald Trump Jr.+59611.7%2¢--
Ivanka Trump+104261.0%1¢--
Thomas Massie+116650.9%1¢--
Brian Kemp+180820.5%1¢--
Tulsi Gabbard+221220.5%0¢--
Pete Hegseth+221220.5%0¢--
Glenn Youngkin+284710.4%0¢--
Josh Hawley+284710.4%0¢--
Marjorie Taylor Greene+284710.4%0¢--
Tom Cotton+284710.4%0¢--
Vivek Ramaswamy+399000.3%0¢--
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+399000.3%0¢--
Katie Britt+399000.3%0¢--
Rand Paul+399000.3%0¢--
Candace Owens+399000.3%0¢--
Nikki Haley+665670.2%0¢--
Greg Abbott+665670.2%0¢--
Elise Stefanik+665670.2%0¢--
Elon Musk+665670.2%0¢--
Kristi Noem+665670.2%0¢--
Mike Pence+665670.2%0¢--
Steve Bannon+665670.2%0¢--
Kim Kardashian+665670.2%0¢--
Eric Trump+665670.2%0¢--
Joe Kent+665670.2%0¢--
John N. Kennedy+665670.2%0¢--
John McEntee+665670.2%0¢--
Byron Donalds+999000.1%0¢+0.1
Sarah Huckabee Sanders+1999000.1%0¢--
Matt Gaetz+1999000.1%0¢--
John Thune+1999000.1%0¢--
Tom Brady+1999000.1%0¢--
Erika Kirk+1999000.1%0¢--
Tim Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Mike Johnson+1999000.1%0¢--
Doug Burgum+1999000.1%0¢--
Rick Scott+1999000.1%0¢--
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen+12844.0%44¢--
Édouard Philippe+41319.5%20¢--
David Lisnard+70612.4%12¢--
Jean-Luc Mélenchon+77011.5%12¢--
François Hollande+34092.9%3¢--
Show 37 more
Raphaël Glucksmann+50282.0%2¢--
Gabriel Attal+63521.6%2¢--
Bruno Retailleau+85961.2%1¢--
Christine Lagarde+104261.0%1¢--
Sarah Knafo+116650.9%1¢--
Jordan Bardella+152850.7%1¢--
Éric Zemmour+180820.5%1¢--
Dominique de Villepin+180820.5%1¢--
Sébastien Lecornu+399000.3%0¢--
François Ruffin+665670.2%0¢--
Marine Tondelier+665670.2%0¢--
Jean Castex+665670.2%0¢--
Karim Bouamrane+665670.2%0¢--
François Asselineau+999000.1%0¢--
Xavier Bertrand+1999000.1%0¢--
Laurent Wauquiez+1999000.1%0¢--
Fabien Roussel+1999000.1%0¢--
Olivier Faure+1999000.1%0¢--
Ségolène Royal+1999000.1%0¢--
Clémentine Autain+1999000.1%0¢--
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan+1999000.1%0¢--
Michel Barnier+1999000.1%0¢--
Valérie Pécresse+1999000.1%0¢--
François Bayrou+1999000.1%0¢--
Élisabeth Borne+1999000.1%0¢--
Yaël Braun-Pivet+1999000.1%0¢--
Gérald Darmanin+1999000.1%0¢--
Carole Delga+1999000.1%0¢--
Bernard Cazeneuve+1999000.1%0¢--
Manuel Bompard+1999000.1%0¢--
Mathilde Panot+1999000.1%0¢--
Juan Branco+1999000.1%0¢--
Clémence Guetté+1999000.1%0¢--
Lucie Castets+1999000.1%0¢--
Yannick Jadot+1999000.1%0¢--
François Baroin+1999000.1%0¢--
Marion Maréchal+1999000.1%0¢--
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro-20867.6%68¢-3.9
Delcy Rodríguez+32623.5%24¢--
No Head of State+45512.2%2¢-0.2
María Corina Machado+141860.7%1¢--
Jorge Rodríguez+332330.3%0¢--
Show 11 more
Edmundo González+399000.3%0¢--
Marco Rubio+665670.2%0¢--
Pete Hegseth+665670.2%0¢--
Frank Donovan+665670.2%0¢--
Diosdado Cabello Rondón+1999000.1%0¢--
Dinorah Figuera+1999000.1%0¢--
Donald Trump+1999000.1%0¢--
Vladimir Padrino López+1999000.1%0¢--
Evan Pettus+1999000.1%0¢--
Dan Caine+1999000.1%0¢--
Richard Grenell+1999000.1%0¢--
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+50616.5%17¢--
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot+11247.2%47¢--
Benjamin Netanyahu+26427.5%28¢--
Naftali Bennett+59014.5%14¢--
Avigdor Lieberman+32902.9%3¢--
Ofer Winter+221220.5%0¢--
Show 14 more
Itamar Ben Gvir+399000.3%0¢--
Yossi Cohen+499000.2%0¢--
Yair Golan+665670.2%0¢--
Yair Lapid+999000.1%0¢--
Benny Gantz+999000.1%0¢--
Gideon Sa’ar+999000.1%0¢--
Yariv Levin+999000.1%0¢--
Moshe Feiglin+999000.1%0¢--
Ayelet Shaked+999000.1%0¢--
Yoaz Hendel+999000.1%0¢--
Israel Katz+999000.1%0¢--
Nir Barkat+999000.1%0¢--
Amir Ohana+999000.1%0¢--
Gilad Erdan+999000.1%0¢--
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+45512.2%2¢--
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro-47682.7%83¢--
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+50616.5%17¢--
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31+21994.4%4¢--
October 31+104261.0%1¢-0.2
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra-249796.2%96¢--
Steve Hilton+24973.9%4¢--
Tom Steyer+665670.2%0¢--
Rick Caruso+1999000.1%0¢--
Alex Padilla+1999000.1%0¢--
Show 18 more
Katie Porter+1999000.1%0¢--
Antonio Villaraigosa+1999000.1%0¢--
Stephen Cloobeck+1999000.1%0¢--
Butch Ware+1999000.1%0¢--
Betty Yee+1999000.1%0¢--
Toni Atkins+1999000.1%0¢--
Kyle Langford+1999000.1%0¢--
Chad Bianco+1999000.1%0¢--
Eleni Kounalakis+1999000.1%0¢--
Daniel Mercuri+1999000.1%0¢--
Tony Thurmond+1999000.1%0¢--
Michael Younger+1999000.1%0¢--
Leo Zacky+1999000.1%0¢--
Nicole Shanahan+1999000.1%0¢--
Eric Swalwell+1999000.1%0¢--
Kamala Harris+1999000.1%0¢--
Matt Mahan+1999000.1%0¢--
Elaine Culotti+1999000.1%0¢--
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei-67887.2%87¢-0.2
No Head of State+21224.5%5¢--
Reza Pahlavi+34092.9%3¢+0.1
Alireza Arafi+99001.0%1¢-0.1
Hassan Rouhani+152850.7%1¢+0.1
Show 25 more
Maryam Rajavi+221220.5%0¢-0.1
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf+249000.4%0¢+0.1
Ahmad Vahidi+284710.4%0¢--
Masoud Pezeshkian+332330.3%0¢--
Abbas Araghchi+332330.3%0¢--
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad+399000.3%0¢--
Muhammad Mirbaqiri+665670.2%0¢--
Hassan Khomeini+665670.2%0¢-0.1
Sadegh Larijani+999000.1%0¢--
Hassan Shariatmadari+999000.1%0¢--
Massoud Rajavi+999000.1%0¢--
Seyed Hossein Mousavian+999000.1%0¢--
Reza Pirzadeh+999000.1%0¢--
Navid Shomali+999000.1%0¢--
Mustafa Hijri+999000.1%0¢--
Ali Motahari+999000.1%0¢--
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel+999000.1%0¢--
Mostafa Pourmohammadi+999000.1%0¢--
Sadegh Mahsouli+999000.1%0¢--
Saeed Jalili+999000.1%0¢--
Mohammad Khatami+999000.1%0¢--
Mohsen Araki+999000.1%0¢--
Nasir Hosseini+999000.1%0¢--
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani+999000.1%0¢--
Ali Asghar Hejazi+999000.1%0¢--
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+43442.3%2¢--
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+17185.5%6¢--
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027+85210.5%11¢+0.5
December 31, 2026+26033.7%4¢+0.1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+15266.2%6¢+0.1
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep-16762.5%63¢+1.0
R Senate, D House+25128.5%28¢--
Republicans Sweep+10768.5%9¢-1.0
D Senate, R House+99001.0%1¢-0.1
Other+665670.2%0¢-0.1
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party-95390.5%91¢--
Republican Party+9539.5%10¢--
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+70012.5%13¢-1.0
Trump out as President before 2027?
Trump out as President before 2027?+24643.9%4¢--
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?+36042.7%3¢--
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31-14459.0%59¢-7.5
December 31+15339.5%39¢-2.7
November 30+31724.0%24¢--
October 31+10768.5%9¢-5.0
October 15+284710.4%0¢-1.4
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+34712.8%3¢-0.2
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson-36578.5%79¢-2.0
Ulf Kristersson+47817.3%17¢+1.9
Ebba Busch+24973.9%4¢--
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist+89911.1%1¢+0.1
Jimmie Åkesson+199000.5%1¢-0.3
Show 5 more
Anna-Karin Hatt+1999000.1%0¢--
Nooshi Dadgostar+1999000.1%0¢--
Simona Mohamsson+1999000.1%0¢--
Amanda Lind+1999000.1%0¢--
Daniel Helldén+1999000.1%0¢--
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%-15761.2%61¢--
≥ 4.5%+42419.1%19¢+7.7
4.0%+84310.6%11¢-13.4
3.75%+73071.4%1¢-0.3
3.5%+116650.9%1¢-0.8
Show 10 more
≤1.0%+132330.8%1¢+0.4
3.25%+199000.5%1¢+0.1
1.25+332330.3%0¢-0.1
2.25%+399000.3%0¢--
2.5%+399000.3%0¢--
3.0%+399000.3%0¢--
1.75%+399000.3%0¢-0.1
2.0%+399000.3%0¢--
2.75%+499000.2%0¢--
1.5%+999000.1%0¢--
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party-17463.5%64¢--
Republican Party+17436.5%37¢--
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027+36521.5%22¢+1.0
December 31+77011.5%12¢--
November 30+17185.5%6¢+1.0
October 31+59611.7%2¢-0.1
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15-704398.6%99¢+1.3
October 16-340997.2%97¢--
October 17-178794.7%95¢--
October 18-101191.0%91¢--
October 22-70087.5%88¢--
Show 8 more
October 24-64186.5%87¢--
October 28-47182.5%83¢--
October 31-38879.5%80¢-2.0
November 8-19065.5%66¢--
November 15-13557.5%57¢-4.0
November 22+10249.5%50¢--
November 30+13842.0%42¢-2.5
December 31+20832.5%33¢-3.0
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028+27027.0%27¢--
December 31, 2027+70012.5%13¢-4.0
June 30, 2027+9539.5%10¢--
December 31, 2026+59611.7%2¢-0.3
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4THIN-19566.1%66¢--
5THIN+58714.6%15¢--
6+31263.1%3¢--
7+75921.3%1¢--
8+99001.0%1¢--
Show 7 more
10+104261.0%1¢--
9+110110.9%1¢--
12+499000.2%0¢--
11+665670.2%0¢--
14+665670.2%0¢--
15++665670.2%0¢--
13+999000.1%0¢--
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027-21768.5%69¢+0.5
November 30, 2027-19966.5%67¢--
October 31, 2027-17463.5%64¢+0.5
September 30, 2027-15661.0%61¢--
August 31, 2027-14158.5%59¢--
Show 10 more
July 31, 2027-11152.5%53¢--
June 30, 2027+10249.5%50¢-1.0
May 31, 2027+11347.0%47¢--
April 30, 2027+16038.5%39¢-1.0
March 31, 2027+21731.5%32¢+1.0
February 28, 2027+26427.5%28¢+1.0
January 31, 2027+34422.5%23¢--
December 31+47117.5%18¢+2.0
November 30+12337.5%8¢-1.5
October 31+21994.4%4¢+0.2
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu-109891.6%92¢+11.1
Ilie Bolojan+85961.2%1¢-0.8
Alexandru Nazare+94241.1%1¢-1.0
Sorin Grindeanu+221220.5%0¢-4.0
George Simion+399000.3%0¢-1.7
Show 33 more
Alexandru Rogobete+399000.3%0¢-0.9
Lucian Croitoru+665670.2%0¢--
Șerban Matei+665670.2%0¢-0.3
Dragoș Pîslaru+665670.2%0¢-0.1
Traian Basescu+665670.2%0¢--
Victor Ponta+665670.2%0¢-0.3
Eugen Tomac+665670.2%0¢-1.5
Siegfried Mureșan+665670.2%0¢--
Mugur Isărescu+1999000.1%0¢--
Mircea Geoană+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Anca Dragu+1999000.1%0¢--
Lucian Isar+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Cătălin Predoiu+1999000.1%0¢-0.4
Marcel Ciolacu+1999000.1%0¢--
Alexandru Rafila+1999000.1%0¢--
Sebastian Burduja+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Ionuț Dumitru+1999000.1%0¢--
Elena Lasconi+1999000.1%0¢--
Cătălin Drulă+1999000.1%0¢--
Vasile Dîncu+1999000.1%0¢--
Dacian Cioloș+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Emil Boc+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Dominic Fritz+1999000.1%0¢--
Raluca Turcan+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Delia Velculescu+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Nicolae Ciucă+1999000.1%0¢-0.1
Hunor Kelemen+1999000.1%0¢--
Calin Georgescu+1999000.1%0¢-0.3
Radu Burnete+1999000.1%0¢-0.4
Dan Motreanu+1999000.1%0¢-1.0
Ciprian Ciucu+1999000.1%0¢--
Adrian Veștea+1999000.1%0¢--
Leonardo Badea+1999000.1%0¢-0.3
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman-11854.1%54¢--
Karen Bass+12045.5%46¢--
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?+30824.5%25¢--
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027-212295.5%96¢--
US+53051.9%2¢--
China+110110.9%1¢--
Qatar / UAE+152850.7%1¢--
Switzerland+152850.7%1¢--
Show 9 more
Turkey+284710.4%0¢--
Russia+332330.3%0¢--
Kazakhstan+399000.3%0¢--
Italy / Vatican+499000.2%0¢--
Saudi Arabia+499000.2%0¢--
Belarus+499000.2%0¢--
Ukraine+665670.2%0¢--
Hungary+999000.1%0¢--
India+999000.1%0¢--
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)-17463.5%64¢--
Ken Paxton (R)+16737.5%38¢--
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?+14386.5%7¢--
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?+12337.5%8¢+3.0
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?+9539.5%10¢-1.0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027+10119.0%9¢--
December 31+39002.5%3¢+0.2
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47+16038.5%39¢--
48+50616.5%17¢--
49+66913.0%13¢--
50+80911.0%11¢--
51+10768.5%9¢--
Show 6 more
52+15676.0%6¢--
53+21474.5%4¢--
54+36742.7%3¢--
55+82331.2%1¢--
56+132330.8%1¢--
57++199000.5%1¢--
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31+54515.5%16¢-2.0
November 30+85210.5%11¢--
October 31+21224.5%5¢-1.0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?+12337.5%8¢--
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31+16038.5%39¢--
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?+116650.9%1¢-0.2
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic-17463.5%64¢--
Republican+19034.5%35¢--
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027+10449.0%49¢+3.5
June 30, 2027+18635.0%35¢-0.5
March 31, 2027+38820.5%21¢--
December 31, 2026+17185.5%6¢--
November 30, 2026+24004.0%4¢--
Show 1 more
October 31, 2026+79001.3%1¢-0.1
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31+21224.5%5¢--
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31+14386.5%7¢--
October 31+141860.7%1¢+0.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?+104261.0%1¢-0.1
Showing 1–50 of 56 eventsVolume-sorted · order-book prices, no vig
What Are Political Prediction Markets?
Political prediction markets price the outcome of elections, appointments, legislation, geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve decisions. Polling shifts, campaign events, confirmation votes and committee announcements move these prices continuously, often well ahead of any official result.
The exchange
About Polymarket
What Polymarket is
A peer-to-peer prediction market, not a sportsbook. Every market is a YES/NO contract that settles at $1 or $0, and the price is a probability: 15¢ means the market puts a 15% chance on that outcome.
Order-book pricing vs bookmaker vig
A sportsbook builds margin into both sides of a line. On an order book the price is the last trade between two traders, with no vig. The honest cost is the bid-ask spread, which is why thin markets are flagged here.
Fees
No per-trade fee on standard markets. The real cost of entering and exiting is the spread, so tight markets are cheap to trade and thin ones are not. Contracts settle in USDC.
Regulatory status
US access runs through a CFTC-regulated exchange following Polymarket's 2025 acquisition of a licensed venue. Availability varies by state. It is an exchange, not a book: you trade against other users, not the house.
What the numbers mean
Volume is dollars traded in a market. Where a venue counts contracts rather than dollars, the figure is converted at that market's own price so the column compares like with like; hover it for the raw count. The 24h column is the change in probability over the last day, in percentage points, measured against each venue's own price a day earlier; a market with no price that old shows no move rather than a flat one. Boards are volume-sorted so the marquee markets lead.
