What are Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)?
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) estimates a player's fantasy point output based on play-by-play data and situational context. It uses historical completion rates, rushing success rates, and touchdown probabilities bucketed by air yards, yard line, and field position to calculate what a player should have scored given their usage. The difference between actual fantasy points (FP) and xFP reveals which players are overperforming or underperforming their expected output.