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Expected Completion Percentage | NFL Advanced Stats

Expected Completion Percentage estimates the completion rate a quarterback should post given the difficulty of every pass they attempt. Last updated 08/04/26Updates within 24-36 hrs post-game

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PlayerTeamPosition
1Jared GoffQB67.7%65.5%67.9%67.4%68.2%68.4%67.1%
2Aaron RodgersQB67.3%66.2%66.2%67.0%67.9%69.0%65.4%
3Geno SmithQB67.0%67.2%65.8%66.6%68.1%68.0%65.7%
4Josh AllenQB66.3%68.5%65.0%66.5%66.6%66.5%66.1%
5Bo NixQB66.2%71.4%65.6%66.2%65.6%65.3%67.2%
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What Is Expected Completion Percentage?

Expected Completion Percentage estimates the completion rate a quarterback should post given the difficulty of every pass they attempt. A model assigns each throw a completion probability based on air yards, pass location, pressure, field position, and game situation, and those probabilities are averaged across all attempts. This NFL player stat is a context-setting NFL advanced stat: a low expected completion percentage signals an aggressive, high-difficulty throw profile, while a high one signals a short, low-risk passing diet. In NFL team stats, it pairs naturally with actual completion percentage and CPOE to show whether a passer's accuracy numbers come from skill or from easy throws.