What Is CPOE?
Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) measures the difference, in percentage points, between a quarterback's actual completion percentage and the completion percentage expected given each throw's difficulty. The expectation comes from a model that accounts for air yards, pass location, pressure, field position, and game situation on every attempt. This NFL player stat is one of the most stable NFL advanced stats for isolating quarterback accuracy from the difficulty of the throws they attempt. A positive CPOE means a passer completes more throws than expected; a negative CPOE means they complete fewer. In NFL team stats, CPOE is often paired with EPA per play to separate quarterback skill from scheme and supporting cast.