What Are Offensive Expected Pressures Allowed?
Offensive expected pressures allowed estimates how many QB pressures an offense should have surrendered given how long its quarterback held the ball on each dropback. Every play's expectation comes from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data: the longer the ball is held, the higher the league-wide odds that pressure arrives. Summing those per-play probabilities produces a schedule- and scheme-adjusted baseline. An offense whose actual pressures allowed beats this number is out-protecting the league at its own time to throw; one that trails it is losing blocks faster than the league does.