Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected | NFL Advanced Team Stats

Rank
1	-14.5	-3.5	-13.0	-12.7	-	-11.4	-17.4	2.7
2	-10.2	-10.7	-12.3	-11.0	-	-11.3	-9.5	-1.8
3	-7.9	-16.2	-7.9	-8.8	-	-10.4	-5.4	-8.4
4	-7.9	20.2	-12.6	-12.1	-	-12.1	-4.2	-3.3
5	-7.7	-20.0	-7.1	-7.4	-	-5.3	-10.4	-8.6

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What Is Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected?

Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected (POE) compares a team's actual quarterback pressure rate allowed to an expected rate derived from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data. Every dropback carries some baseline pressure risk simply from how long the quarterback holds the ball -- a three-second hold is pressured far more often league-wide than a one-second quick game throw. POE isolates the offensive line's actual performance from that baseline: a negative POE means the offensive line allows fewer pressures than expected given its quarterback's time to throw, signaling elite pass protection, while a positive POE means it allows more pressure than expected, exposing a line getting beaten regardless of how quickly the ball comes out. Because it adjusts for time to throw, POE separates true pass-protection quality from offensive scheme (quick-game offenses that rarely get pressured simply because they rarely hold the ball look worse, not better, once expectation is accounted for).

Which teams have the lowest offensive pressure rate over expected in the NFL in 2026?

The New York Jets rank first in the NFL in offensive pressure rate over expected at -14.5 through games played October 30, 2026. New England is second at -10.2 & San Francisco third at -7.9. A gap of 4.3 separates the New York Jets from second place, & 19.1 separate it from the 25th-ranked team.

Only 10.3 separate first from tenth. Indianapolis is fourth at -7.9, the Los Angeles Rams fifth at -7.7, Atlanta sixth at -7.3, Houston seventh at -6.7, Detroit eighth at -6.3, Jacksonville ninth at -4.7 & Minnesota tenth at -4.2.

A gap of 1.9 separates 18th from 19th, the widest single step anywhere below the top four. Chicago is 11th at -3.3, Denver 12th at -3.3, Seattle 13th at -2.9, Baltimore 14th at -2.0, Tennessee 15th at -1.9, Buffalo 16th at -1.7 & Pittsburgh 17th at -1.3.

Eight teams sit inside 2.9 of each other from tenth to 17th, the tightest stretch of the ranking. Dallas is 18th at -0.1, Cincinnati 19th at 1.8, New Orleans 20th at 2.6, Miami 21st at 2.9, Las Vegas 22nd at 3.1, Arizona 23rd at 3.4, Carolina 24th at 3.4 & Philadelphia 25th at 4.6.

How this ranking is measured

Of the 32 NFL teams ranked in the 2026 regular season, the top 25 are listed above, ranked lowest first. Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected (POE) compares a team's actual quarterback pressure rate allowed to an expected rate derived from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data. Figures are as of October 30, 2026 & are recalculated on StatRankings after each game's play-by-play is processed.