What Is Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected?
Offensive Pressure Rate Over Expected (POE) compares a team's actual quarterback pressure rate allowed to an expected rate derived from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data. Every dropback carries some baseline pressure risk simply from how long the quarterback holds the ball -- a three-second hold is pressured far more often league-wide than a one-second quick game throw. POE isolates the offensive line's actual performance from that baseline: a negative POE means the offensive line allows fewer pressures than expected given its quarterback's time to throw, signaling elite pass protection, while a positive POE means it allows more pressure than expected, exposing a line getting beaten regardless of how quickly the ball comes out. Because it adjusts for time to throw, POE separates true pass-protection quality from offensive scheme (quick-game offenses that rarely get pressured simply because they rarely hold the ball look worse, not better, once expectation is accounted for).