What Is Defensive Pressure Rate Over Expected?
Defensive Pressure Rate Over Expected (POE) compares a defense's actual quarterback pressure rate created to an expected rate derived from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data. Every dropback carries some baseline pressure probability simply from how long the quarterback holds the ball, so a pass rush facing an offense that throws quickly starts from a lower expected-pressure baseline than one facing an offense that holds the ball. Defensive POE isolates the pass rush's actual performance from that baseline: a positive POE means the defense creates more pressure than expected given the time it was given to get there, signaling an elite pass rush, while a negative POE means it generates less pressure than expected, exposing a front that isn't winning its share of one-on-ones. Because it adjusts for time to throw, defensive POE separates true pass-rush ability from opponent scheme (facing quick-game offenses looks worse, not better, once expectation is accounted for).