Pass Rate Over Expectation - NFL Advanced Team Stats

What is Pass Rate Over Expectation?

Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) is an advanced NFL team stat that compares a team’s actual pass rate to the expected pass rate based on down, distance, score, and game situation. A positive PROE indicates a team passes more often than expected, signaling an aggressive or pass-first philosophy. A negative PROE reflects a more conservative or run-heavy approach. Tracking PROE across the season reveals coaching tendencies, offensive balance, and how teams adjust their strategy against different opponents.