What Are Defensive Expected Pressures?
Defensive expected pressures estimates how many QB pressures a defense should have generated given how long opposing quarterbacks held the ball against it. Every play's expectation comes from Kaplan-Meier survival curves fit on league-wide time-to-pressure and time-to-throw data: the longer a quarterback holds the ball, the higher the league-wide odds that pressure arrives. Summing those per-play probabilities produces an opponent-adjusted baseline, so a defense that feasted on statuesque pocket passers is graded against that easier slate. A pass rush whose actual pressures forced beats this number is winning faster than the league does; one that trails it is being carried by opportunity rather than rush wins.